Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?
11%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing Sam Altman's departure as unlikely, with odds in the teens reflecting a modest but non-negligible chance of a CEO change over the next thirteen months. Odds remained unchanged over the past day and have shifted only slightly lower over the week, suggesting the market has settled on this relatively low probability and sees limited new information moving sentiment either direction.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Sam Altman is announced to have resigned or been fired from OpenAI at any point between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026. The announcement triggers resolution immediately, even if the departure takes effect later.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 11% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $88K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official announcement from OpenAI regarding Altman's resignation or removal would resolve the market immediately to Yes; conversely, passage of time without such an announcement narrows the remaining window before the December 2026 deadline.
- Any major internal conflict, governance disputes, or regulatory developments at OpenAI could shift expectations for leadership stability, though thin volume suggests limited liquidity for large moves.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
