AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
89%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is heavily favoured, near-certain at 89% implied probability, reflecting strong trader confidence that an AI model will clear the 90% threshold before year-end 2026. This level has risen slightly over the past day, suggesting recent positive signals about AI capability progress. The high probability indicates the market views this milestone as likely but not guaranteed within the remaining timeframe.
How this market resolves
The market resolves Yes if a state-of-the-art AI model scores 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise it resolves No. Resolution will be determined primarily by information from EpochAI or a consensus of credible reporting.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 89% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +4 pt |
| 7d change | +8 pt |
| Market volume | $108K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Announcements of new model releases or benchmark results from leading AI labs could shift odds sharply if they demonstrate progress toward or away from the threshold.
- Time remaining until the December 31, 2026 deadline is substantial, allowing room for significant capability gains or setbacks in the interim.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
