Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
43%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices Yamal's chances at a bit below even, suggesting meaningful competition from other young players for the award. The implied probability has moved down 4 points over the past week while remaining unchanged in the last 24 hours, indicating gradual softening of his odds over a longer horizon.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Lamine Yamal wins the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as officially determined by FIFA. It settles by 20 July 2026.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 43% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -4 pt |
| Market volume | $71K |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-20 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Performance and injury status of Yamal and other young contenders during qualifying and the tournament itself will shape final odds.
- The award voting and FIFA's official announcement in July 2026 directly determines the outcome; little time remains for odds to drift once the tournament concludes.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.