Will Baker Mayfield win the 2026 NFL MVP?
2%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
Baker Mayfield holds a remote chance at winning the 2026 MVP, with the market pricing him at about 2 percent implied probability. The odds have remained unchanged over both the past day and week, suggesting stable market sentiment on his chances relative to other candidates in what is typically a highly competitive award.
How this market resolves
This market resolves to the player who wins the official 2026 NFL Most Valuable Player award for the 2026–27 season. In case of a tie, it follows NFL official rules; if multiple winners are announced, it resolves to the player whose last name comes first alphabetically.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 2% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $99K |
| Resolves by | 2027-02-15 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- NFL performance during the 2026–27 season and statistical comparison to other candidates would be the primary driver of any shift.
- The market has until mid-February 2027 to settle once the award is officially announced, leaving time for odds to move if his season trajectory changes expectations.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
